Analysts forecast net interest income (NII) growth of 22-27% while they estimate earnings growth in the range of 46-65% year-on-year. Sequential earnings growth is expected to be high single digits.
Sharekhan said Progress is expected to see strong growth of 20% year-over-year. NIM (net interest margin) to remain stable at 4 percent. “Asset quality should improve, with lower slippage and better recovery,” the broker said in a note.
YES Securities analysts said the slippages should decrease sequentially. “Net interest margin is expected to be stable on a sequential basis due to wholesale lending generally keeping pace with retail lending. Commission income would only be slightly higher due to low card fees. Treasury earnings would be subdued due to a rise in bond yields. Provisions would be lower sequentially,” they added.
ICICI Bank is one of analysts’ top picks among large private banks. Even individual and institutional investors have turned to it
. The stock also rose in tandem. Over the past year, it has grown by 29% despite the poor performance of the banking sector in 2022 so far.
According to Axis Securities, which agrees with other analysts, the NII will be supported by healthy loan growth while the NIMs are likely to remain flat quarter over quarter.
“Commission income should improve, however, lower Treasury income will drive non-interest income. Cost under control to support operating profit growth, slippages to moderate QoQ and asset quality to s’ improve,” the broker said.
Main controllable elements:
- Credit Card Segment Commentary
- Growth of business segments, in particular the credit card portfolio and commission income